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October regime change



There's no doubt that October 2017 has been warm so far. The foliage season is an unequivocal bust. So let's look forward to ski season!

The next week is going to be a beautiful stretch of warm and dry fall weather. It'll be a great time to get some yard work done and tie up all those loose ends before ski season arrives. I'll personally be staining my porch railing this weekend. But the warm weather is going to come to an abrupt and wet end in the middle of next week. Behind this transition, colder air will move in for the last weekend of October. How that transition occurs is an open question, but there's plenty of energy to work with. Below is the latest GFS model run, but don't read too much into it.


The transition circa Wednesday, October 25 is likely to be a dynamic one. There looks to be plenty of subtropical moisture coming into contact with the cold air burst. Recent model guidance suggests we'll be looking at a robust storm crossing being fed by a strong low-level jet. The snapshot below shows an example of this, with the color scaling showing the 850 mb wind speed. (Note: 850 mb represents approximately the elevation of the high peaks in New Hampshire)


After this dynamic system clears the area, I expect productive snowmaking temperatures over the weekend. The plot below shows the ensemble average lows on Saturday night. I expect to see colder temperatures than this at elevation.


I don't expect to see any ski areas open on Saturday, but it still looks likely we're talking about skiing somewhere in New England by Halloween. Sunday, October 29 is still in play too. How the Wednesday transition plays out is likely the key.

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End of the month Nor'easter? I know GFS isn't very reliable but it does show a amplified storm coming up the coast days after what you just posted. It doesn't look like snow but may it be a start of a pattern?

Screen Shot 2017-10-19 at 10.51.36 AM.png

Edited by abubob

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