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Weather takes a turn for the wintry side

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The stars have aligned over the last 24 hours as the weather model guidance has decided that it's time for winter to get started. This a much more sensical solution as all the pieces were in place. The first development is that model guidance has shifted on-shore with Saturday night's snowfall. The result is a plowable snowfall across southeast New England, with light snow over the White Mountains of New Hampshire and western Maine. Accumulations in Vermont won't be meaningful until later in the week.


Another storm is expected on Tuesday which will track across New England and bring a mixed bag of precipitation. Right now it looks like a solid base-building snow event for the White Mountains on New Hampshire. Details are still sketchy this far out, but the model runs have been more consistent than usual for this range of a forecast bring snow to the mountains and rain to the coastal plain. The latest GFS model forecast below illustrates that the rain-snow line will be a question in play, but just inland of the line it's looking like several inches of mixed precipitation or wet snow.


After these two systems pass, the cold sticks around for the foreseeable future. Stay tuned as much snow events are likely.

10:45 PM Update:

With the latest round of guidance coming in, we're finally at the point where the high-resolution models are in range. And terrain enhancement in the White Mountains is looking good. I'm upgrading this to a Powder Day WatchCarrying wider skis with you this weekend is recommended. Something in the 95 - 100 mm width range is recommended for Sunday. About 6" of fresh is expected for first chair at Wildcat on Sunday.



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