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February 7, 2018 storm

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Weatherman

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I know that January was less than favorable for snow storms, which is why you didn't see a lot from me. Plus I was on vacation for the last ten days in the Dolomites and Venice, but I'm back now! I'm still trying to work through my backlog, but fortunately tomorrow's upcoming storm is a simple story.

In short, there is a progressive wave coming through tomorrow (Wednesday) that will drop a quick 8-12" of snow across northern New England. As the center of the low will pass over southern New England, accumulations will taper off across the seacoast of NH and most of MA. The snow should start in the morning and taper off in the evening and be done by midnight across New England. Like most coastal lows, expect New Hampshire and Maine to do better than Vermont, though nobody should be disappointed. I've left out any specific model forecast maps, because I don't want to get too focused on where the exact rain / snow transition line sets up in any one forecast. Also given the nature of this system (a progressive wave), I don't expect orographic enhancement to be as big a factor as we would see with a closed coastal low (your traditional Nor'Easter).

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The thermal profile still appears uncertain over southern New England, so I'm not showing a track for the low. Look for it to pass somewhere between southeastern NH and southeast MA. The result is relatively uncertain accumulations, with 2-8" expected in the transition region around the Merrimack Valley.

After the storm, cooler but still seasonable temperature return. It will be a chilly but tolerable late week for skiing, and then will moderate toward the weekend. A weaker wave of disturbed warmer weather approaches for this weekend. Enjoy the soft snow on Friday and Saturday, because the passing of Sunday's weather could lead to a wetter snowpack firming up on the back side. Next week's weather looks at best seasonable, with a lack of any sustained cold air.

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