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Sunday will be subtle

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Weatherman

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I'm happy to be able to put forward a remotely optimistic weekend outlook. Some light precipitation (of mixed phase depending on location) on Friday night will give way to a beautiful day. Saturday looks to be a warm and sunny days with temperatures in the 40s in the valleys, and 30s at the summits. But all eyes should be focused on Sunday, which looks like a classic warm air overrunning scenario. In these situations, Vermont typically starts as snow and switches over to straight rain. But northern New Hampshire into Maine can be a very different story where cold air damming hangs tough. Looking toward Sunday afternoon, snow may still be the dominant precipitation over the White Mountains and northeast into Maine.

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But the temperature profile is going to be borderline. The exact details will depend on to what extent a secondary surface low develops off the New England coast, which will help to reinforce the cold air damming. If this lows fails to develop, we could be left with freezing rain or a straight cold rain. Optimistically so far it looks like the White Mountains will see a 6 inch paste job on Sunday. For those of you savvy on Skew-T diagrams, note the deep layer of overrunning warm air all the way up to 650 mb. That nearly isothermal layer looks to stay just below freezing, and should lead to a pasty snow, but it won't take much of a shift to flip it.

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Updates will be necessary as the storm approaches.

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