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Warm weather continues

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Weatherman

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I've been meaning to post an update for days now, but there just isn't much to say. Expect the warmth to continue for at least the next two weeks. There are hints of a pattern change coming up after that, but those hints are always there. The weather models often become dominated by seasonal-scale forcing at this time of the year. Changes in the energy balance happen so quickly that they are hard to ignore. We've already seen daytime highs cool by nearly ten degrees since the start of the warm spell simply due to seasonal shifts. Even though the temperatures have cooled in that regard, we're still running well above average and will continue to do so.

By now you've probably noticed that the foliage is running well behind schedule and the colors are dull at best. Expect that to continue throughout the fall. This is an overwhelmingly poor year for leaf peeping. My only comfort is that there is little to no correlation with this pattern to the winter ahead. The truth is that seasonal trends in the Northeast are difficult to forecast, and nearly impossible at this point in the season.

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Are you saying that the current warm weather stretch has no predictable impact on whether the ski season starts late or not?

Edited by LiquidFeet

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17 minutes ago, LiquidFeet said:

Are you saying that the current warm weather stretch has no predictable impact on whether the ski season starts late or not?

Define late? I'd go that far right now. Weather forecasts only have skill out to about two weeks. That far out we're just talking about probabilities and not a deterministic forecast. The forecasts only explain up to a few percent of the variance in the best cases, and usually less than that.

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9 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Define late? I'd go that far right now. Weather forecasts only have skill out to about two weeks. That far out we're just talking about probabilities and not a deterministic forecast. The forecasts only explain up to a few percent of the variance in the best cases, and usually less than that.

Here are month-by-month surface temperature anomaly forecasts with a "skill mask". The colored areas show forecast surface temperature anomalies. No need to panic yet. I'm not going to be spreading information that I don't consider reliable or worthwhile. That's what alarmist media outlets do in an attempt to drive traffic.

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