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Weatherman

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Blog Comments posted by Weatherman


  1. 9 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

    Define late? I'd go that far right now. Weather forecasts only have skill out to about two weeks. That far out we're just talking about probabilities and not a deterministic forecast. The forecasts only explain up to a few percent of the variance in the best cases, and usually less than that.

    Here are month-by-month surface temperature anomaly forecasts with a "skill mask". The colored areas show forecast surface temperature anomalies. No need to panic yet. I'm not going to be spreading information that I don't consider reliable or worthwhile. That's what alarmist media outlets do in an attempt to drive traffic.


  2. 17 minutes ago, LiquidFeet said:

    Are you saying that the current warm weather stretch has no predictable impact on whether the ski season starts late or not?

    Define late? I'd go that far right now. Weather forecasts only have skill out to about two weeks. That far out we're just talking about probabilities and not a deterministic forecast. The forecasts only explain up to a few percent of the variance in the best cases, and usually less than that.

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