Jump to content
Smellytele

MLK weekend snow?

Recommended Posts

Something? Sure. Lots of uncertainty though. I’ll hopefully have a post when things are clearer.


Sent from my iPhone using Northeast Mountain Sports

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moved stuff around for Sun-Mon. I'm buying in. However, the last time models were consistently onto something this far out it washed everything away a couple weeks ago. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even better for me. Classes start Tuesday so no work till this storm is out of the way. Even so, going till Thursday after this storm won’t be too difficult.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm starting to get excited. Friday looks like. Sunday looks like the main event. Still too far out for details, but a Chasing Snow post will be coming this week.

But where do I go this weekend? So many options!

Looking at my ticket supply and cross-correlating with blackouts...

  • Black (NH)
  • Sunday River
  • Shawnee Peak
  • Cranmore
  • Crotched
  • Attitash
  • Wildcat
  • Bretton Woods
  • Cannon
  • Middlebury
  • Stowe
  • Jay Peak

Damn. Time to start burning tickets.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

I'm starting to get excited. Friday looks like. Sunday looks like the main event. Still too far out for details, but a Chasing Snow post will be coming this week.

But where do I go this weekend? So many options!

Looking at my ticket supply and cross-correlating with blackouts...

  • Black (NH)
  • Sunday River
  • Shawnee Peak
  • Cranmore
  • Crotched
  • Attitash
  • Wildcat
  • Bretton Woods
  • Cannon
  • Middlebury
  • Stowe
  • Jay Peak

Damn. Time to start burning tickets.

What does Friday look like? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This Sat-Sun storm is a tricky one. A lot messier than last week's deal.

Good things - A LOT of moisture vs. the last storm (1-2"). 

Bad:

Looks like it will be a mess in the flatlands. Going to be a rough drive Sunday morning.

Given the track the upslope snows on the backside that really helped in the last storm and gave areas an extra 8-10"+ don't look to be there

Mixing in the Berks, SVT, SNH areas?

Cold and windy as fuuuuuuuuuuu on Monday

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, it looks like Wildcat is the place to be. 6-10" overnight on Saturday and 14-20" during the day on Sunday. It looks like the winds will pick up as the day goes on, so Sunday morning should be OK, but Sunday evening/Monday morning may be breezy. -35 with wind chill on Monday, so bundle up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, GrewUpSkiingWachusett said:

Wow, it looks like Wildcat is the place to be. 6-10" overnight on Saturday and 14-20" during the day on Sunday. 

Not if a southern trend starts going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm debating what to do about a blog post. I'm not ready yet to put forecast totals out there. It's premature for that. I am confident in a juicy storm, but that's where the confidence stops. Yes, it could be big.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay... here is my story. I'm staying quiet on Chasing Snow until I can be more confident with actual numbers.

Why am I so nervous? Because we are too far away. Because the upstream energy is still out over the Pacific, there is a lot of uncertainty.

My biggest concern right now is the thermal profile. There's going to be plenty of cold air entrenched over Quebec. And plenty of moisture being pumped up from the south. Where the front sets up is the huge question. Some model runs are showing almost comical amounts of freezing rain at the boundary. For example, the latest European model puts out over an inch of freezing rain in places.

image.png.7b957aadc3e5c45ad390221d08c409a2.png

How much snow are we talking about? Inland of the front, well over a foot. Exact amounts will vary based on things like the track of the storm and temperature profile. Just for fun, let's throw out the latest American model forecast for total accumulation through Monday.

image.thumb.png.adcf9b83b2f75008176d02cef94c7252.png

The European model is consistent with these general numbers, except it locally shifts them around the map. Hopefully you can see why I am going to sit on my hands. I'd be crazy to start announcing these kind of numbers four days in advance. Odds are these numbers will come down. Regression to the mean.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL  Euro has 23.4" over the next 10 days at my house and 27.7 at Cannon.  The two other models show 0 to 2" at my house.  Wow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Puck it said:

LOL  Euro has 23.4" over the next 10 days at my house and 27.7 at Cannon.  The two other models show 0 to 2" at my house.  Wow.

This is the map that catches my attention:

image.thumb.png.ba65e658f2396e67799f5ddb68e34978.png

That's the mean snowfall from all of the European ensembles. Those are some big numbers for an ensemble mean.

But as big as the snow numbers are, that ice forecast would be the main event if this ever materialized.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Weatherman said:

This is the map that catches my attention:

image.thumb.png.ba65e658f2396e67799f5ddb68e34978.png

 

But as big as the snow numbers are, that ice forecast would be the main event if this ever materialized.

Yea forget the snow. That would be a really really bad. I'd be at home feeding the fire to keep pipes from freezing. Tons of ice to leave millions without power followed by wind chills of 20-below =  disaster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah. Power outages+extreme cold is not good. That happened to me after Sandy. I had no power for 2 weeks and we got snow on day 10 and had to sleep at a neighbors house.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also weatherman. Don’t be afraid to post a blog post when your not confident. I think that’s when blog posts are most valuable.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Mobile Apps available!

Please try our mobile apps for iOS and Android

×
×
  • Create New...