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MLK weekend snow?


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I sincerely hope to come back here in 4 days after Fitchburg has gotten 40" of snow and  give you sh*t  for not believing in the Snowmagedon maps!

Bretton Woods. Everyone should go there. It's awesome in deep powder.     

I'm starting to get excited. Friday looks like. Sunday looks like the main event. Still too far out for details, but a Chasing Snow post will be coming this week. But where do I go this weekend?

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I'm starting to get excited. Friday looks like. Sunday looks like the main event. Still too far out for details, but a Chasing Snow post will be coming this week.

But where do I go this weekend? So many options!

Looking at my ticket supply and cross-correlating with blackouts...

  • Black (NH)
  • Sunday River
  • Shawnee Peak
  • Cranmore
  • Crotched
  • Attitash
  • Wildcat
  • Bretton Woods
  • Cannon
  • Middlebury
  • Stowe
  • Jay Peak

Damn. Time to start burning tickets.

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7 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

I'm starting to get excited. Friday looks like. Sunday looks like the main event. Still too far out for details, but a Chasing Snow post will be coming this week.

But where do I go this weekend? So many options!

Looking at my ticket supply and cross-correlating with blackouts...

  • Black (NH)
  • Sunday River
  • Shawnee Peak
  • Cranmore
  • Crotched
  • Attitash
  • Wildcat
  • Bretton Woods
  • Cannon
  • Middlebury
  • Stowe
  • Jay Peak

Damn. Time to start burning tickets.

What does Friday look like? 

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This Sat-Sun storm is a tricky one. A lot messier than last week's deal.

Good things - A LOT of moisture vs. the last storm (1-2"). 

Bad:

Looks like it will be a mess in the flatlands. Going to be a rough drive Sunday morning.

Given the track the upslope snows on the backside that really helped in the last storm and gave areas an extra 8-10"+ don't look to be there

Mixing in the Berks, SVT, SNH areas?

Cold and windy as fuuuuuuuuuuu on Monday

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Okay... here is my story. I'm staying quiet on Chasing Snow until I can be more confident with actual numbers.

Why am I so nervous? Because we are too far away. Because the upstream energy is still out over the Pacific, there is a lot of uncertainty.

My biggest concern right now is the thermal profile. There's going to be plenty of cold air entrenched over Quebec. And plenty of moisture being pumped up from the south. Where the front sets up is the huge question. Some model runs are showing almost comical amounts of freezing rain at the boundary. For example, the latest European model puts out over an inch of freezing rain in places.

image.png.7b957aadc3e5c45ad390221d08c409a2.png

How much snow are we talking about? Inland of the front, well over a foot. Exact amounts will vary based on things like the track of the storm and temperature profile. Just for fun, let's throw out the latest American model forecast for total accumulation through Monday.

image.thumb.png.adcf9b83b2f75008176d02cef94c7252.png

The European model is consistent with these general numbers, except it locally shifts them around the map. Hopefully you can see why I am going to sit on my hands. I'd be crazy to start announcing these kind of numbers four days in advance. Odds are these numbers will come down. Regression to the mean.

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1 minute ago, Puck it said:

LOL  Euro has 23.4" over the next 10 days at my house and 27.7 at Cannon.  The two other models show 0 to 2" at my house.  Wow.

This is the map that catches my attention:

image.thumb.png.ba65e658f2396e67799f5ddb68e34978.png

That's the mean snowfall from all of the European ensembles. Those are some big numbers for an ensemble mean.

But as big as the snow numbers are, that ice forecast would be the main event if this ever materialized.

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2 hours ago, Weatherman said:

This is the map that catches my attention:

image.thumb.png.ba65e658f2396e67799f5ddb68e34978.png

 

But as big as the snow numbers are, that ice forecast would be the main event if this ever materialized.

Yea forget the snow. That would be a really really bad. I'd be at home feeding the fire to keep pipes from freezing. Tons of ice to leave millions without power followed by wind chills of 20-below =  disaster

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