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MLK weekend snow?

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Just now, Weatherman said:

There's a lot going on in those images. I'm seeing a more coherent picture now. I'll write up something this afternoon. Gathering some images now. Maybe I'll steal those from @Flying Yeti

A lot not being shown too, sleet. I'm curious what ratios end up being.

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6 minutes ago, Flying Yeti said:

A lot not being shown too, sleet. I'm curious what ratios end up being.

That's the big questions for the mountains. The temperature argue for high ratio blower. But thus far the dynamics argue against it. Will be interesting to see what the higher res guidance shows tomorrow.

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25 minutes ago, Puck it said:

.4" of ice is not good.

Typically the NAM is the model that likes to spit out a ton of ice and then comes back to reality hours prior to the storm. The Euro typically doesn't over do freezing rain like this which is concerning. If we get within 30 hours and the hi-res models are saying ice then I would start to put more stock in it (and I think the models are too far north with the freezing rain).

Edited by Flying Yeti

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It looks like in the Euro B-East and Magic are the places to go. The GFS shows Hunter and Wyndham getting nailed. It also looks JFK airport might dodge the bullet, I know of one person who has a red eye to JFK Saturday night.

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20 minutes ago, Benski said:

It looks like in the Euro B-East and Magic are the places to go. The GFS shows Hunter and Wyndham getting nailed. It also looks JFK airport might dodge the bullet, I know of one person who has a red eye to JFK Saturday night.

Maybe? I'm not ready to give any specific mountain recommendations yet. The consistency of the snow will be the biggest question. And existing base depths giving you a surface to work with.

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As always, great right up!

Side note, with some of the discussion of site traffic, I would like to say on a personal note, this type of insight is exactly what drives me to the forum. Much appreciated comments @weatherman and all those others that are much more informed about forecast than me!

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2 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Maybe? I'm not ready to give any specific mountain recommendations yet. The consistency of the snow will be the biggest question. And existing base depths giving you a surface to work with.

Some of us have a strong desire to commit now and pray the forecast does not change.

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5 minutes ago, Benski said:

Some of us have a strong desire to commit now and pray the forecast does not change.

Then I hesitate to suggest southern Vermont. There isn't much base there to underly the fresh snow.

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Just now, Flying Yeti said:

Yea screw that. Please change. I don't want to be on a mattress next to our fire for days without power. 

I meant in terms of skiing. I really hope this icing is somehow avoided. After this storm I am going to have to go to an apartment with no fire, and the heat is off in there, and all the neighboring units.

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5 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Then I hesitate to suggest southern Vermont. There isn't much base there to underly the fresh snow.

Is that actually true (I don't mean to challenge the swami here) but this shows pretty nice snow depth in SVT....Mt Snow may be too far south to have much natural base but Bromley/Stratton/Magic on north should be just fine

Bromley snow report shows all their glades open today as an example

sd1_today.jpg

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2 minutes ago, xwhaler said:

Is that actually true (I don't mean to challenge the swami here) but this shows pretty nice snow depth in SVT....Mt Snow may be too far south to have much natural base but Bromley/Stratton/Magic on north should be just fine

Bromley snow report shows all their glades open today as an example

sd1_today.jpg

I had just checked the Magic snow report which shows most of their expert-only terrain as closed.

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28 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Then I hesitate to suggest southern Vermont. There isn't much base there to underly the fresh snow.

We were in the low angle woods of Magic last week and 6" would open the rest of the stuff up. With 16"+ everything would be bottomless. 

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22 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

I had just checked the Magic snow report which shows most of their expert-only terrain as closed.

The stuff like Magician and Red Line needs a lot of snow. If rocky ice fall otherwise known as Goniff is open, all the woods except The Hallows, White Tiger, and Voodoo are good to go. If Magician or Green Line is open, its all open. 

 

Edited by Flying Yeti

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2 minutes ago, xwhaler said:

and if its like that at Magic than Bromley/Stratton would be even better off given the elevation difference up there

Agreed but at least Magic limits tickets so it won't be more than a 15 minute wait. Stratton will be absolutely packed this weekend. 

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3 minutes ago, Flying Yeti said:

Agreed but at least Magic limits tickets so it won't be more than a 15 minute wait. Stratton will be absolutely packed this weekend. 

I'd like to think the cold will keep people at home, but last Saturday's lines at Sugarbush dissuaded me of this idea.

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Agreed but at least Magic limits tickets so it won't be more than a 15 minute wait. Stratton will be absolutely packed this weekend. 

Given what I know about New York area casual skiers, they are scared of the snow.

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4 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

I'd like to think the cold will keep people at home, but last Saturday's lines at Sugarbush dissuaded me of this idea.

If you weren't starting to drive more traffic to the site, we could discuss the places that had zero lines last weekend!  😉

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38 minutes ago, Cannonballer said:

If you weren't starting to drive more traffic to the site, we could discuss the places that had zero lines last weekend!  😉

Bretton Woods. Everyone should go there. It's awesome in deep powder. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Weatherman said:

I'd like to think the cold will keep people at home, but last Saturday's lines at Sugarbush dissuaded me of this idea.

There were no lines at Mt Ellen on Saturday on any lift! Half the time I was riding chairs alone. And actually any time I looked at the webcams Lincoln Peak didn't look bad other than Gatehouse and Castlerock, but neither of those should be a surprise. Super Bravo and Heaven's Gate both appeared to have little lines for a Saturday any time I checked the cams.

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Really bummed I have mandatory work this long weekend. This is a perfect setup with icing and storms in the south that prevent people from getting out of the metro areas if they do not preposition. That said, probably not much vacancy at this point since it is a holiday weekend with many days advanced notice of a storm. I suspect if you go far enough north, first tracks will last for quite a few runs due to many skiers being stuck going slow on the highway. Hope you guys enjoy it. I'll take a few runs on Saturday just for kicks but duty calls Sunday and Monday. :(

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3 hours ago, cdskier said:

There were no lines at Mt Ellen on Saturday on any lift! Half the time I was riding chairs alone. And actually any time I looked at the webcams Lincoln Peak didn't look bad other than Gatehouse and Castlerock, but neither of those should be a surprise. Super Bravo and Heaven's Gate both appeared to have little lines for a Saturday any time I checked the cams.

I skied Mt Ellen Saturday and Sunday.  No lines and I was virtually alone on Lower FIS mid day on Saturday.  

I will be at Sugarbush Saturday through Monday.  Good news is that I can walk to the lift at Mt Ellen if driving is sketchy on Sunday.   Bundle up - it's gonna be cold !

Edited by WWF-VT

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