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The government of Victoria increasing their Covid restrictions are what caused Vail to close those two down.  Not sure why they are mad on the flip side.
The restrictions were not intended to close them down. They were to keep Melbourne and Sydney residents from traveling. Vail wouldn’t operate for just locals.
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At this point, I just want to be able to ski. 

I thought I'd check in considering today's announcement. Wildcat's season was shortened in spring. Attitash was lengthened in the early season. Capacity limits will be real, but mostly on ho

As usual, Win Smith at Sugarbush is leading the way in public disclosures and openness. He is confident his all open air Quads, Tripples and Doubles will be open, and snow-making will start November f

On 10/10/2020 at 7:44 AM, Benski said:
On 10/9/2020 at 9:13 PM, Machski said:
The government of Victoria increasing their Covid restrictions are what caused Vail to close those two down.  Not sure why they are mad on the flip side.
The restrictions were not intended to close them down. They were to keep Melbourne and Sydney residents from traveling. Vail wouldn’t operate for just locals.

I got that part, but those were restrictions the government of Victoria put up.  If Vail felt their client base was very limited and perhaps their Employee bases at both as well, then they made a business decision based off government actions.  Again, if Victoria is now upset, they should have considered how their planned actions might impact businesses first.

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On 10/13/2020 at 8:37 PM, Machski said:

I got that part, but those were restrictions the government of Victoria put up.  If Vail felt their client base was very limited and perhaps their Employee bases at both as well, then they made a business decision based off government actions.  Again, if Victoria is now upset, they should have considered how their planned actions might impact businesses first.

Machski will be he first governor to make skiing a top priority.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Powder days might rune it for all of us. Cervina, the backside of Zermatt was shut down temporarily for having a missive line when the lifts opened on a powder day. They had only upper mountain lifts open, so there were probably fewer options to get out of the base area than normal. I am wondering if ski areas will end up needing to implement stricter reservations for when the lift opens?

https://planetski.eu/2020/10/28/italian-government-orders-ski-resorts-in-italy-to-close-but-some-stay-open/

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  • 3 weeks later...

Lets try to iron out when they will close, if at all. I think its futile to try to predict what direction the virus is going so I am limiting myself to state or company thresholds.

Here is the information I found on New York states guidelines, which don't directly answer that question.

Government guidance does not directly answer when a ski area may be forced to close due to covid rates. There is a ski area specific guidance but it does not define any a point where ski areas would be shut down as long as they comply with safety protocols. It does ask that locals and pass holders be prioritized. The state has two up to date documents on shutdowns. The first defines there overall strategy and says "Certain high-risk non-essential businesses (eg., gyms, fitness centers and classes, barber shops, hair salons, personal care services) are closed [in code orange]." The second is a list of "essential businesses" which includes most outdoor recreation facilities with the including ropes courses and golf clubs, but an explicit exception for minigolf but no mention of ski areas.

https://forward.ny.gov/cluster-action-initiative

https://esd.ny.gov/guidance-executive-order-2026

I could not find New Hampshire's or Vermont's guidelines on when specific businesses will close, aside for those currently closed in Vermont.

Maine defines golf courses as non essential, but does not mention ski areas and has no guidelines for when a golf course might close.

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Good points @Benski .  I almost wonder if we should having a "Covid closing" thread to discuss those points instead of having them in the "Covid Opening" thread.  But since there isn't a whole lot of discussion going on anyway, let's just do it all here!

My guess is that ski area closings aren't going to be driven by whether or not customers are getting sick, it's going to be driven by whether employees are getting sick.  Riding chairlifts and skiing is presumably pretty safe.  And even if a customer gets sick it will be virtually impossible to determine that it happened while skiing.  But if employees of a given ski area start racking up a ton of positive tests or hospitalizations then the business has a real problem on their hands. It also means that there is likely a major community transmission going on and the small ski towns have a problem on their hands.  That is what is going to shut down a ski area.

Taking that to the next step....  If a ski area has a major employee breakout and is owned by one of the major owners (e.g. Vail, Boyne) they may very well shut down more than just the one ski area.  Take Boyne as an example.  If Sunday River has a major employee outbreak, Boyne would likely shutdown both SR and SL since they won't want all of their passholders swarming up to Carabasett.  If Boyne shuts down the 2 big boys, then the small areas and the state of Maine will be backed into a corner.  They can't really allow the hordes of SR/SL skiers suddenly descending on the few small hills around the state.  This is basically how it played out in Colorado in March.  Vail and Alterra shutdown in one day and almost immediately the governor shut down skiing state-wide to prevent the small independents (and their small towns) from being overwhelmed. 

 

 

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@Cannonballer I was 2 second away from starting a new thread.

 

I think that is why many ski areas are capping and may not sell day tickets. I think most ski areas are prepared to stop such a waive. What I am more worried about is powder days, especially with gondolas/trams. At least two ski areas in Europe could not keep the crowds social distanced at the bottom of a gondola/tram, though the crowds dispersed once they were actually skiing.

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40 minutes ago, Benski said:

....especially with gondolas/trams. At least two ski areas in Europe could not keep the crowds social distanced at the bottom of a gondola/tram, though the crowds dispersed once they were actually skiing.

Yup, that's gonna be a real issue.  Cannon isn't planning to have the tram running early on. And since they never ran it this summer I expect we won't see it at all for the ski season.

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Hopefully, ski areas set their caps before opening and stick to them (or adjust them lower if base area crowding becomes an issue). Normally, a ski area would not want to turn off their prepayment system the day before a big storm and anticipated business. Fingers crossed they stick with the plan and tighten it as needed.

Areas could open earlier to disperse people out of the base area faster. The earlier an area opens, the fewer people will make it for line up. Though, I understand that areas have pre-opening prep work and employees have to be scheduled before a powder day is known. Many resorts open at 8:00am and the Forerunner opens at 7:30am, so it can be done.

NH is going to be the victim of areas in neighboring states either not opening at all or closing (we are already going to see more traffic in NH due to the VT travel restrictions). We know from last year that NH areas would be the last to close if everything got shut down again. At least we know for sure we can ski at Cannon... the question is will we actually want to if they can't control things?

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15 hours ago, Cannonballer said:

Yup, that's gonna be a real issue.  Cannon isn't planning to have the tram running early on. And since they never ran it this summer I expect we won't see it at all for the ski season.

Just remember, Cannon employees were being harassed for working on social media before they shutdown.

There have been no known transmission from outside recreation activities such as golf, skiing, hiking, tennis that I have read peer reviewed papers on. Also, there have been a number of peer reviewed papers on the transmission from hard surfaces is extremely unlikely.

Edited by Puck it
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2 hours ago, Puck it said:

 Also, there have been a number of peer reviewed papers on the transmission from hard surfaces is extremely unlikely.

Damn thing survives everywhere. As you said the transmission piece is the prime question/concern and it looks unlikely. Lots of news today on it being found on imported meat and frozen food packaging. 

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3 hours ago, Puck it said:

There have been no known transmission from outside recreation activities such as golf, skiing, ...

Yup, that's that point I made earlier.  Shutdowns won't occur because skiers are passing it around to each other. Shutdowns will occur if ski area employees are getting sick doing all of the non-outdoor tasks that go into keeping a ski area running (offices, ticket sales, ski patrol, restaurants, etc), 

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3 minutes ago, Cannonballer said:

Yup, that's that point I made earlier.  Shutdowns won't occur because skiers are passing it around to each other. Shutdowns will occur if ski area employees are getting sick doing all of the non-outdoor tasks that go into keeping a ski area running (offices, ticket sales, ski patrol, restaurants, etc), 

Agreed.  Community transmission is the latest buzz word.  So that could be the case if employees are not cautious.  I assume that they will be tested and mask all of the time other emloyees.

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40 minutes ago, Flying Yeti said:

Damn thing survives everywhere. As you said the transmission piece is the prime question/concern and it looks unlikely. Lots of news today on it being found on imported meat and frozen food packaging. 

Be very wary of what you read and take as fact from journalistic writings.  A lot of these are coming from an open forum that anyone has access too.  These are not peer reviewed and data may not be valid.  Everything should be peer reviewed before creating hysteria.  The latest was a non peer reviewed paper on transmission from dogs and grocery delivery. These journalists need to stop.  The latest WHO paper by a Stanford epidemiologist and peer reviewed has placed the death rate slightly above the flu and nothing on that in the news.  

In regards to meat plants,  the whole plant is at ~40F.  This is exactly where the virus thrives, so not surprising that these are large events.  I believe I have a seen a couple papers on the transmission from food/meat and it was extremely unlikely.

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17 minutes ago, Puck it said:

Be very wary of what you read and take as fact from journalistic writings.  A lot of these are coming from an open forum that anyone has access too.  These are not peer reviewed and data may not be valid.  Everything should be peer reviewed before creating hysteria.  The latest was a non peer reviewed paper on transmission from dogs and grocery delivery. These journalists need to stop. 

Yes there is tons of misinformation, especially from those trying to sensationalize. I would also caution that with dealing with something as novel as this, put skepticism in the peer review process as well.  There have been many retracted papers regarding covid. When The Lancet and NE Journal of Medicine retracts papers - wtf! At this point I'm only putting stock in data/findings that have been replicated - which sadly do not get published as often as they should. Although the Vitamin D research has really picked up steam, but what has it shown not to benefit? A lot of what I have seen from initial papers is confusion between statistical and clinical significance which is infuriating.

https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/

 

Edited by Flying Yeti
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33 minutes ago, Flying Yeti said:

Yes there is tons of misinformation, especially from those trying to sensationalize. I would also caution that with dealing with something as novel as this, put skepticism in the peer review process as well.  There have been many retracted papers regarding covid. When The Lancet and NE Journal of Medicine retracts papers - wtf! At this point I'm only putting stock in data/findings that have been replicated - which sadly do not get published as often as they should. Although the Vitamin D research has really picked up steam, but what has it shown not to benefit? A lot of what I have seen from initial papers is confusion between statistical and clinical significance which is infuriating.

https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/

 

Like the 5G one.

 

One other thing that I have an issue with is the PCR test which is the golden standard.  This is not a test for diagnosis.  It is a lab research tolol.  It is magnifies the genetical material of the virus thru cycles.  It is an amplification test. 

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18 hours ago, Cannonballer said:

Yup, that's gonna be a real issue.  Cannon isn't planning to have the tram running early on. And since they never ran it this summer I expect we won't see it at all for the ski season.

Those trams are super inefficient when you pack people in like sardines.

 

I think ski lodges are treated as separate from mountain ops. I don't think a restaurant will drag the whole thing down unless a ski area does something stupid

 

On corona virus transmission, I think we need to think of some data as better than nothing, but not reliable. High quality data takes time, and we know waiting for it would be disaster. For example the claim that we don't know about immunity after corona virus infections is just pathetic. Nate Silver estimated in July if immunity only lasted 3 months, we would expect there to be tens to hundreds of thousands of reinfections, vs the dozens. But dozens is enough to put the media into a frenzy, and and its going to be awful, when people realize 5%-10% of vaccinated people can also get infected.

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45 minutes ago, Benski said:

Those trams are super inefficient when you pack people in like sardines.

 

I think ski lodges are treated as separate from mountain ops. I don't think a restaurant will drag the whole thing down unless a ski area does something stupid

 

On corona virus transmission, I think we need to think of some data as better than nothing, but not reliable. High quality data takes time, and we know waiting for it would be disaster. For example the claim that we don't know about immunity after corona virus infections is just pathetic. Nate Silver estimated in July if immunity only lasted 3 months, we would expect there to be tens to hundreds of thousands of reinfections, vs the dozens. But dozens is enough to put the media into a frenzy, and and its going to be awful, when people realize 5%-10% of vaccinated people can also get infected.

5-10% of vaccinated people will get infected, but:

A: The Moderna vaccine, in particular, has seemingly had benefits even for those who do get infected. Moderna said that no one who received the vaccine in their study had a serious case of coronavirus, so if vaccinated people who do get infected get a milder illness, that's still a win...

 

B: the fact that 90-95% of vaccinated people WON'T get infected will drive Rt way down... And then that 5-10% of vulnerable folks have much less of a chance of being exposed to the virus in the first place.

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3 hours ago, WJenness said:

5-10% of vaccinated people will get infected, but:

A: The Moderna vaccine, in particular, has seemingly had benefits even for those who do get infected. Moderna said that no one who received the vaccine in their study had a serious case of coronavirus, so if vaccinated people who do get infected get a milder illness, that's still a win...

 

B: the fact that 90-95% of vaccinated people WON'T get infected will drive Rt way down... And then that 5-10% of vulnerable folks have much less of a chance of being exposed to the virus in the first place.

Amen brother but knowing the news media, they will find and amplify the voice of that morning wife of a couple people who are the exception as opposed to letting them get drowned out like they should be so people assume they will be like 99.9 percent of other people. But this has the consequence of slowing immunization and may contribute to more antivaxers. We need this to go well to encourage more flu shots, measles shots, ect.

Also these are the first MRNA vaccines to be tested thoroughly, and suggests we could see a bunch of new vaccines soon.

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Outdoor transmission may not be a big concern for the ski industry. But lodges are going to be a major issue, even with reduced capacity. Many lodges don't have good HVAC. People need to go to the bathroom, some people are going to want to eat and be out of the elements. Transmission in the lodges seems like a major concern to me. You ain't going to have peer reviewed papers on that until after the season is over. I think we can extrapolate from data showing that restaurants and bars with poor HVAC are problem means lodges will be problems. We'll see what happens, but I don't know if ski areas can control people enough to eliminate transmission issues. Employees can spread amongst themselves and amongst guests, especially those that work indoors with guests for their entire shift.

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I don't but I think they might end up making people stay out of the lodges except to use the bathroom if need by. Bathrooms should not be a major issue, with such little time in them. I have heard some ski areas will have porta potties. I am doubtful given the bad smell makes me associate them with bad air. Especially if bathrooms are closed reducing overall space.  Keeping all lodges and bathrooms open 7 days a week could help a lot.

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6 hours ago, WJenness said:

5-10% of vaccinated people will get infected, but:

A: The Moderna vaccine, in particular, has seemingly had benefits even for those who do get infected. Moderna said that no one who received the vaccine in their study had a serious case of coronavirus, so if vaccinated people who do get infected get a milder illness, that's still a win...

 

B: the fact that 90-95% of vaccinated people WON'T get infected will drive Rt way down... And then that 5-10% of vulnerable folks have much less of a chance of being exposed to the virus in the first place.

The 90-95% is efficacy not effectiveness. They are two different things. Vaccine will most likely be less effective in the real world. 

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