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November 2017 weather discussion

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1 minute ago, Puck it said:

K1 is prone to it.  Less for the NRT, but need the K1 to get to get there.  The White forecast for the same time show less wind.

I wonder how close they are to being able to spin the S4?

I know that's more resilient with wind than the K1, and would get you to North Ridge.

They may have to get creative with moving some snow, but I bet they could do it.

Probably wouldn't be lap-able, but could get you up there anyway.

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Suddenly I really want to skip school Friday.. what the heck is going on 

Jay Peak mid forcast

image.png.ad0285c9d1f33ce0d478301cfb6309c4.png

Looking at the hourly NWS thinks they may pick up 3-6 inches between the rain sat too... ill pray but if this happens this weekends going to be crazy

Edited by MimersG

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1 hour ago, xwhaler said:

Winds do look pretty wild for Sunday....I wonder how this affects lift ops?

Yeah, I've got my car packed for Mt. Snow and I'm at work still deciding if I want to go. Rain Saturday and possible wind holds Sunday....may not be worth it.

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Yeah, I've got my car packed for Mt. Snow and I'm at work still deciding if I want to go. Rain Saturday and possible wind holds Sunday....may not be worth it.

I’m there right now. The two trails open are in nice condition. The north face is closed. They claim it’s a wind hold which is bullshit. It’s a beautiful day. I have multiple sources confirm from employees that is an ice sheet at the bottom.


Sent from my iPhone using Northeast Mountain Sports mobile app

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6 hours ago, Weatherman said:


I’m there right now. The two trails open are in nice condition. 

Good to hear. I decided to go for it and will be there first thing tomorrow. 

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2 hours ago, Los said:

Saw this posted in another forum that shall remain nameless: https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

The projected cold appears to bypass ski country in both the east and the west.
 

Huh?  

Quote

"The 2017-18 winter forecast shows below normal temperatures for the northern and eastern U.S., with above normal temperatures in the southwestern and southcentral U.S."

Doesn't that imply colder than normal temperatures in the northeast?

It's certainly been colder in North Carolina in the last week or so.  Of course, there was a warm spell before that that totally confused the plants.  We have azaleas that are blooming a bit and daffodils that came up.  I've seen daffodils come up in Dec or Jan, but never azalea flowers in the fall.

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30 minutes ago, Los said:

When do we get the next Chasing Snow post?


Sent from my iPhone using Northeast Mountain Sports

Meh. Midweek?

Nothing really exciting to talk about.

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15 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Do you want me to make something up?

SNOW TOO DEEP TO SURVIVE IS COMING THIS WEEK!

Just what we need, fake Weather ! !!

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The hi-res is modeling these bands quite well. Saw reports that Stowe and Bolton were at 6" around 4pm. Seems to still be cranking but Smuggs might be the odd spot out north of MRV. 

 

@Weatherman, was it just a little shortwave combined with lake effect moisture and the terrain? These are the events I want to start being able to see a day ahead of time so I can call out lol

Edited by Flying Yeti

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1 hour ago, Flying Yeti said:

The hi-res is modeling these bands quite well. Saw reports that Stowe and Bolton were at 6" around 4pm. Seems to still be cranking but Smuggs might be the odd spot out north of MRV. 

 

@Weatherman, was it just a little shortwave combined with lake effect moisture and the terrain? These are the events I want to start being able to see a day ahead of time so I can call out lol

Most of the time the moisture from these events is wrap-around from a departing low. The mesoscale models generally handle them fairly well. Check out the 3km NAM forecast initialized at 12Z yesterday.

nam3km_asnow_neus_47.thumb.png.d66f6a3337c3c542572b247d1e2956ac.png

The orientation of the precipitation streaks illustrates how the flow is coming out of the northwest. And notice how well the model picks up on the terrain enhancement of the snowfall. And check out the model sounding in the midst of the snowfall. Notice all the low-level moisture that is going to be forced over the mountains.

download.thumb.png.26997851d5c4d4d2a386cd6ade08ba25.png

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Most of the time the moisture from these events is wrap-around from a departing low. The mesoscale models generally handle them fairly well. Check out the 3km NAM forecast initialized at 12Z yesterday.
nam3km_asnow_neus_47.thumb.png.d66f6a3337c3c542572b247d1e2956ac.png
The orientation of the precipitation streaks illustrates how the flow is coming out of the northwest. And notice how well the model picks up on the terrain enhancement of the snowfall. And check out the model sounding in the midst of the snowfall. Notice all the low-level moisture that is going to be forced over the mountains.
download.thumb.png.26997851d5c4d4d2a386cd6ade08ba25.png
^this is what we need in terms of weather reporting, interpretation, and education. So tired of armchair weather-posers who learn enough lingo to be pretentious and condescending, but don't have any more of a clue than the rest of us.
I'm with @flyingyeti, I'd like to learn how to read and understand the micro-scale indicators that are way more important for local, 'surprise' events. We're obviously all watching the big events anyway, and the mainstream forecasters are getting decent enough for that stuff. But knowing when to pick a random day in NoVT is where it's at.
Thanks for this lesson. Looking forward to more.
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Did anyone else find today ended up with much slicker snow than expected? The temps up north at altitude barely reached freezing and stayed very slick when the forecast was much higher?

 

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Yes MimersG. At Mount Snow today there was long sections of sheer "snow" that was barely edgeable.  Some parts of the mountain were soft and wonderful.  It comes down to either how or when they made the snow I guess.

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